Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 0.332107 0.378063 0.427962 0.486157 0.552156 0.624677 0.710410
2025-09-14 0.252553 0.310681 0.378696 0.464118 0.568522 0.691978 0.849093
2025-09-21 0.201444 0.265853 0.346492 0.454787 0.596392 0.775278 1.018551
2025-09-28 0.162272 0.228601 0.317023 0.443375 0.619237 0.855374 1.196767
2025-10-05 0.140062 0.209621 0.307893 0.456621 0.675916 0.987403 1.463841
2025-10-12 0.118291 0.187380 0.290448 0.455055 0.711208 1.094656 1.712820
2025-10-19 0.102315 0.170930 0.278642 0.459541 0.755586 1.220983 2.008935
2025-10-26 0.090698 0.159284 0.272224 0.471061 0.812169 1.373514 2.368423
2025-11-02 0.076353 0.140629 0.251393 0.455347 0.821249 1.450105 2.614083
2025-11-09 0.063457 0.122292 0.228164 0.431599 0.812413 1.494385 2.809648
2025-11-16 0.054822 0.110280 0.214239 0.422209 0.827443 1.581845 3.094254
2025-11-23 0.047464 0.099471 0.200841 0.411573 0.838179 1.662229 3.376257
2025-11-30 0.042920 0.093753 0.196823 0.419570 0.888228 1.827830 3.856117
2025-12-07 0.036684 0.083471 0.182093 0.403524 0.887406 1.893615 4.146243
2025-12-14 0.032256 0.076341 0.172808 0.397511 0.906764 2.003543 4.546301
2025-12-21 0.028271 0.069516 0.163100 0.388994 0.919325 2.100917 4.934472
2025-12-28 0.026303 0.067061 0.162771 0.401718 0.981721 2.316069 5.619710
2026-01-04 0.023712 0.062639 0.157174 0.401110 1.012853 2.464991 6.174082
2026-01-11 0.021726 0.059394 0.153892 0.405626 1.057096 2.650904 6.845890
2026-01-18 0.020268 0.057274 0.153067 0.416215 1.118192 2.886192 7.676088
2026-01-25 0.017831 0.052078 0.143539 0.402590 1.114781 2.961032 8.108506
2026-02-01 0.015404 0.046472 0.132029 0.381751 1.088914 2.974764 8.382648
2026-02-08 0.013780 0.042894 0.125471 0.373565 1.096389 3.077134 8.912635